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Humans did not arrive on most of the world’s islands until relatively recently, making islands favorable places for disentangling the timing and magnitude of natural and anthropogenic impacts on species diversity and distributions. Here, we focus onAmazonaparrots in the Caribbean, which have close relationships with humans (e.g., as pets as well as sources of meat and colorful feathers). Caribbean parrots also have substantial fossil and archaeological records that span the Holocene. We leverage this exemplary record to showcase how combining ancient and modern DNA, along with radiometric dating, can shed light on diversification and extinction dynamics and answer long-standing questions about the magnitude of human impacts in the region. Our results reveal a striking loss of parrot diversity, much of which took place during human occupation of the islands. The most widespread species, the Cuban Parrot, exhibits interisland divergences throughout the Pleistocene. Within this radiation, we identified an extinct, genetically distinct lineage that survived on the Turks and Caicos until Indigenous human settlement of the islands. We also found that the narrowly distributed Hispaniolan Parrot had a natural range that once included The Bahamas; it thus became “endemic” to Hispaniola during the late Holocene. The Hispaniolan Parrot also likely was introduced by Indigenous people to Grand Turk and Montserrat, two islands where it is now also extirpated. Our research demonstrates that genetic information spanning paleontological, archaeological, and modern contexts is essential to understand the role of humans in altering the diversity and distribution of biota.

 

Changes in phenology in response to ongoing climate change have been observed in numerous taxa around the world. Differing rates of phenological shifts across trophic levels have led to concerns that ecological interactions may become increasingly decoupled in time, with potential negative consequences for populations. Despite widespread evidence of phenological change and a broad body of supporting theory, large-scale multitaxa evidence for demographic consequences of phenological asynchrony remains elusive. Using data from a continental-scale bird-banding program, we assess the impact of phenological dynamics on avian breeding productivity in 41 species of migratory and resident North American birds breeding in and around forested areas. We find strong evidence for a phenological optimum where breeding productivity decreases in years with both particularly early or late phenology and when breeding occurs early or late relative to local vegetation phenology. Moreover, we demonstrate that landbird breeding phenology did not keep pace with shifts in the timing of vegetation green-up over a recent 18-y period, even though avian breeding phenology has tracked green-up with greater sensitivity than arrival for migratory species. Species whose breeding phenology more closely tracked green-up tend to migrate shorter distances (or are resident over the entire year) and breed earlier in the season. These results showcase the broadest-scale evidence yet of the demographic impacts of phenological change. Future climate change–associated phenological shifts will likely result in a decrease in breeding productivity for most species, given that bird breeding phenology is failing to keep pace with climate change. 

Abstract Applications of molecular phylogenetic approaches have uncovered evidence of hybridization across numerous clades of life, yet the environmental factors responsible for driving opportunities for hybridization remain obscure. Verbal models implicating geographic range shifts that brought species together during the Pleistocene have often been invoked, but quantitative tests using paleoclimatic data are needed to validate these models. Here, we produce a phylogeny for Heuchereae, a clade of 15 genera and 83 species in Saxifragaceae, with complete sampling of recognized species, using 277 nuclear loci and nearly complete chloroplast genomes. We then employ an improved framework with a coalescent simulation approach to test and confirm previous hybridization hypotheses and identify one new intergeneric hybridization event. Focusing on the North American distribution of Heuchereae, we introduce and implement a newly developed approach to reconstruct potential past distributions for ancestral lineages across all species in the clade and across a paleoclimatic record extending from the late Pliocene. Time calibration based on both nuclear and chloroplast trees recovers a mid- to late-Pleistocene date for most inferred hybridization events, a timeframe concomitant with repeated geographic range restriction into overlapping refugia. Our results indicate an important role for past episodes of climate change, and the contrasting responses of species with differing ecological strategies, in generating novel patterns of range contact among plant communities and therefore new opportunities for hybridization. The new ancestral niche method flexibly models the shape of niche while incorporating diverse sources of uncertainty and will be an important addition to the current comparative methods toolkit. [Ancestral niche reconstruction; hybridization; paleoclimate; pleistocene.] 

The potential emergence of Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal) in North America threatens salamander diversity and ecosystem functioning, thus an understanding of mechanisms influencing host survival during infection is key to predict future impacts. Previous studies indicate that temperature plays a role in regulating infection dynamics, in that access to a thermal gradient provides the means to prevent infections. Phenotypic flexibility is a likely mechanism, as temperature can enhance (or suppress) host functional capacity in both lunged and lungless salamanders. However, we know very little about how hosts are using thermal environments to achieve effective immune gene expression during Bsal infection. Through a series of experiments, we aim to 1) reveal if interspecific differences in disease susceptibility and functional responses are exacerbated by thermal environments, 2) determine if hosts can minimize the metabolic costs of infections by selecting optimal environments, and 3) project susceptibility risk across the landscape using information about species’ thermal preferences. We discuss our plans to evaluate immune gene expression, metabolic rates and thermoregulation relating to infection with Bsal and access to different thermal environments in plethodontid salamanders from Florida. Additionally, to develop models to predict infection susceptibility, we are seeking collaborations in compiling data on thermal preferences and thermal limits across plethodontid salamander species. 

Data availability limits phenological research at broad temporal and spatial extents. Butterflies are among the few taxa with broad-scale occurrence data, from both incidental reports and formal surveys. Incidental reports have biases that are challenging to address, but structured surveys are often limited seasonally and may not span full flight phenologies. Thus, how these data source compare in phenological analyses is unclear. We modeled butterfly phenology in relation to traits and climate using parallel analyses of incidental and survey data, to explore their shared utility and potential for analytical integration. One workflow aggregated “Pollard” surveys, where sites are visited multiple times per year; the other aggregated incidental data from online portals: iNaturalist and eButterfly. For 40 species, we estimated early (10%) and mid (50%) flight period metrics, and compared the spatiotemporal patterns and drivers of phenology across species and between datasets. For both datasets, inter-annual variability was best explained by temperature, and seasonal emergence was earlier for resident species overwintering at more advanced stages. Other traits related to habitat, feeding, dispersal, and voltinism had mixed or no impacts. Our results suggest that data integration can improve phenological research, and leveraging traits may predict phenology in poorly studied species.

 

Effects of global climate change on population persistence are often mediated by life‐history traits of individuals, especially the timing of somatic growth, reproductive development, and reproduction itself. These traits can vary among age groups and between the sexes, a result of differential life‐history tactics and levels of lifetime reproductive investment. Unfortunately, the trait data necessary for revealing sex‐specific breeding behaviors and use of breeding cues over reasonably large geographic areas remain sparse for most taxa. In this study, we assembled and analyzed a new reproductive trait base for the North American deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus) from digitized natural history specimens and field censuses. We used the data to reconstruct sex‐specific breeding phenologies and their drivers within and among North American ecoregions. Male and female phenologies varied across the geographic range of this species, with discordance in timing and intensity being highest in regions of lower seasonality (and longer breeding seasons). Reliance on environmental variables as breeding cues also appeared to vary in a sex‐specific manner, being most similar for photoperiod and least similar for temperature (positive male response and negative female response); in addition, model validation indicated that phenological models generalized better for males than for females. Finally, our individual‐level trait data also show that male reproductive investment (quantified as relative testis size) varies across the vastly different abiotic and social (i.e., female breeding) contexts studied here. By harmonizing across a broad set of digital data resources, we demonstrate the potential to uncover drivers of phenological variation within species and inform global change predictions at multiple scales of biological organization.

 

Abstract Anthropogenically-driven climate warming is a hypothesized driver of animal body size reductions. Less understood are effects of other human-caused disturbances on body size, such as urbanization. We compiled 140,499 body size records of over 100 North American mammals to test how climate and human population density, a proxy for urbanization, and their interactions with species traits, impact body size. We tested three hypotheses of body size variation across urbanization gradients: urban heat island effects, habitat fragmentation, and resource availability. Our results demonstrate that both urbanization and temperature influence mammalian body size variation, most often leading to larger individuals, thus supporting the resource availability hypothesis. In addition, life history and other ecological factors play a critical role in mediating the effects of climate and urbanization on body size. Larger mammals and species that utilize thermal buffering are more sensitive to warmer temperatures, while flexibility in activity time appears to be advantageous in urbanized areas. This work highlights the value of using digitized, natural history data to track how human disturbance drives morphological variation. 

Abstract Color polymorphic animals offer a unique system for studying intraspecific phenotypic responses to climate change. Discrete color morphs are easy to identify, and correlated trait responses of morphs can indicate how climate warming may facilitate long-term maintenance of polymorphisms. We use a historical dataset spanning 43 years to examine temporal shifts in color morph frequency and body size in response to climate in the Eastern Red-backed Salamander, Plethodon cinereus , which contains a widespread striped/unstriped color polymorphism. We created a pipeline to extract high-throughput trait data from fluid-preserved museum specimens where we batch-photographed salamanders, de-aggregated individual specimens from photographs, and solicited help of community scientists to score color morphs. We used a linear modeling framework that includes information about spatial population structure to demonstrate that color morph frequency and body size vary in response to climate, elevation, and over time, with an overall trend of higher frequency and decreased body size of the striped morph, but increased size of the unstriped morph. These surprising results suggest that morphs may be responding to multiple climate and geographic drivers through co-adapted morphological changes. This work highlights new practices of extracting trait data from museum specimens to demonstrate species phenotypes response to climate change.